← Back to the pitchAppendix A · Monterrey Phase 0 · free data only

Where the chains already went, and what has not followed

OXXO validates that people are here. Coppel validates that they have credit. Bodega Aurrera marks where income drops off. The nine Monterrey hubs that carry the first two signals without the third are the medium band this fund wants to serve. Below: which of the services that normally follow purchasing power are missing there, and whether the market is already closing each gap.

1 · The chain signature

Every hub by its Coppel and Aurrera density

Circle area is catchment population. Filled blue circles qualify on all four rules (OXXO density, Coppel present, Aurrera below the ceiling, schooling in the medium band). The shaded box shows the two rules on these axes; hollow blue circles inside it fail one of the other two. Hover for the full profile.

medium, qualifiesmedium, fails a rulelow schoolinghigh income

One knob away

Medium-schooling hubs that miss a single rule. These are the thresholds worth arguing about, not the hubs.

HubFails onValueRule

2 · What has not followed

Follow-on services in the nine qualifying hubs, against the medium-band median

Each cell: units observed / units expected if the hub matched the median density of its peers. Bar fills to expected; the tick marks the peer median. Tint deepens with the deficit. Lag = openings since 2020 would close the gap within four years, or the hub is young and still filling in. Structural = an established hub, nothing opening, gap persists: the field visit has to explain why.

lag market closing itstructural nobody is buildingserved at or above peer median

3 · On the map

Hub cores by band, qualifying hubs outlined

mediumlowhighheavy outline = qualifies · faint outline = catchment

Where to spend field budget first

Ranked by missing units × deficit ratio among lag and structural rows. Structural rows outrank lag rows of the same size because nobody else is building there.

    4 · Rules in force

    Medium band (config/bill_of_services.yaml → market_match)

    Read this with the limits in mind

    • Twenty-five hubs is a thin sample; the peer median moves when one hub changes band. Run the same page on Saltillo, Querétaro and Guadalajara before trusting a threshold to two decimals.
    • Catchments are straight-line nearest-core. A hub on the edge of a richer neighbor borrows its cinema in reality but not here.
    • "Openings since 2020" is the DENUE registration date, which includes re-registrations. Treat openings per year as an order of magnitude.
    • Schooling (GRAPROES, years) is the income proxy. It is the best free one, and it is still a proxy.